For the longest time I thought only a few friends and a certain dog owner bothered to read this blog. Now I’m thinking the shot-callers of the Republican National Convention may be stopping through here as well, looking for guidance from a guy who writes comic books.
Over the weekend, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice attended one of the regular weekly meetings of Americans for Tax Reform, a salon of prominent conservative figures that has never enjoyed the company of a secretary of state before. Absent also from the news are the frequent and ardent denials by Rice that she is in any way interested in the GOP veep nomination.
I’m reasonably sure this is all shill, Rice perhaps doing her mentor George W. a favor by making some noise for John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee. I regard a McCain-Rice ticket as highly unlikely and the speculation about it all—no doubt orchestrated by the campaign—as smarmy and manipulative, with a huge potential to backfire on the Republicans.
Rice is obviously being used for her major assets—her gender and her race—in an effort to steal some of the thunder (now devolving into boredom) from the Democratic contest. But, those attributes notwithstanding, Rice brings little to the table that a presidential candidate might actually value. She would be of little help to McCain in states with high African American populations, like Rice’s home state of Alabama, as Rice’s negatives (the war, her loyalty to the president) make her a figure of some controversy among many blacks. While her civil rights and academic resumes are impeccable, her service record to this president and, most especially, support of this war are huge negatives for McCain.
I’m fairly certain Rice is just being dangled out there. A McCain-Rice ticket might be the GOP (or Bizarro World) version of the Dream Team, but I doubt McCain’s temperament makes Rice a suitable partner. I also think both versions of the so-called dream team—McCain/Rice or Hillary/Obama—are particularly dreamy. Both versions are unbalanced and cater to the sensational over the practical. Both Hillary and Obama need a southern white guy with unimpeachable credentials to balance their tickets. McCain needs a southern conservative with charisma and a strong pulse, as McCain’s health issues will doubtless become a major campaign issue. If Mike Huckabee wasn’t so obviously the GOP version of Jimmy Carter, he’d be the obvious choice. McCain needs to link up with precisely the kind of hard-right Republican he personally despises (McCain himself is, despite his claims, more of a centrist than a conservative).
Without some tabackie-chomping redneck at his side, I’m fairly certain the GOP faithful will stay home in November and whoever’s left standing in the Democrats’ sandbox will be sworn in—most likely without the other major candidate as the veep. Holding out hope of a Hillary/Obama or, even less likely, Obama/Hillary ticket is just playing to the orchestra. Condi as running mate is just the party trying to manipulate genuine hopes of some magical, earthshaking change in our political system, when holding out that very hope is, in fact, politics as usual.
Rice is a Presbyterian, which suggests she is a Christian but perhaps one of the Frozen Chosen: a Christian who is not likely to excite fundamentalist Christians or move them to the polls. Her views on major Christian issues like abortion rights and gay marriage are unknown as she has, heretofore, represented the views of her masters—not necessarily her own. The few times she has spoken in her own voice, she has, however, spoken forcefully and defended herself impressively on issues like civil rights and the war. She’s very, very smart and, I suspect, much tougher than most of us know.
I’ve always believed the modern-era Republican party exists mainly to play the Christian Right for idiots, exploiting them with spurious promises of reversing Roe v. Wade and ending stem cell research and putting prayer back in school: promises they make every, I mean every, election, and promises they’ve yet to keep. In a free republic, these are, for the most part, unrealistic promises told capriciously by professional liars and consumed by religious leaders and pastors—many of whom also fit that description—and foisted upon the Christian faithful, many of whom revere their pastors more than they honor their actual God and believe everything the man tells them. Like robots, or more accurately, lemmings, Christian conservatives march to the beat of whatever drum is being played by Focus On The Family or the Moral Majority or whomever. They are, for the most part, the GOP’s bitch every bit as much as the African American community is the Democrats’.
This election holds out the hope of breaking that cycle: of John McCain frankly acknowledging he hasn’t much of a shot at the Christian right no matter what he does. Nominating Rice would, therefore, propel the senator toward the moderates, with perhaps only the liberals being out of reach. Likewise, a Hillary/Obama or Obama/Hillary ticket would unite the typically fractious (which is why they always lose) Democratic party, giving a real voice to the communities the Democrats have traditionally taken for granted.
There is enormous potential, here. My cynicism tells me, however, it’s old fart politics as usual. It’s bait and switch. At the end of the day, McCain. Hillary and Obama will all have to run toward the right and choose some white guy with a pot belly and a toothpick in his mouth who will sit in a closet for four years while we all go back to business as usual.
Which is what makes the Rice teaser a particularly evil business, one that could really cost McCain if it goes on much longer and he ultimately does not chose her.
13 Comments
A few weeks ago I was interested in seeing what the reaction would be if they floated Rice's name out there.
Of course, the situation on the ground has changed since then: Rev. Wright didn't do Saint Obama in, and Hillary is just kind of over at this point.
So overall, the impact of Rice's name in the current climate wasn't what it could have been.
If I were putting money on it right now, today, I would say that McCain's veep would probably be Florida's Governor, Charlie Crist.
Obama: I still personally like Jim Webb, the Senator from Virginia. That's a bit of a long shot though. It would be interesting if Obama can get Chuck Hagel. Mayor Mike though (Bloomberg) is who I would place my bet on today; with Richardson as Secretary of State.
scrawled by Isaac Lawrence | April 7, 2008 5:54 PM
I doubt Condi would hurt McCain as far as the war goes; he's already far enough out on that issue that she wouldn't make an impact. In regards to her ties to Bush, it could hurt. But then she's one of the few members of the Bush administration to have had her public image relatively unscathed; perhaps because she was never in a position of being a forceful advocate for the war, or because she's seen as one of the few members who earned her spot on the strength of her intellect and credentials, rather than ideological or political connections.
Anyway, I'm not convinced she wants to run a national campaign just yet.
scrawled by Matt Adler | April 7, 2008 9:58 PM
Matt:
Yeah, I don't think Rice would be much of a negative factor in regards to the war and John McCain, either. Nor do I think her ties to Bush would weigh that heavy on McCain.
No, the only (or at least main) role that I feel that Condoleezza Rice on McCain's ticket would play is one of picking up black votes in the event of Hillary getting the nod over Obama through super-delegates.
(A few weeks back there were some who put forth that the Dems could lose the black vote for the next 20 years if that came to pass. I think that may be overstating it, but I do believe that it would hurt them in this election.)
Of course, that's looking less and less likely to happen at this point in the game -- if it was ever even going to happen.
No, Condoleezza Rice I don't think really brings much more to the table other than the fact that she's a woman and she's African American. And again, in my cynical view, she would be used (assuming Rice would go along with it) in an attempt by the Republicans to garner any of the black vote that may stay home if it's Hillary and not Obama -- especially if it's felt that Hillary had stolen the nomination through some smoke-filled back room deal.
Now, I of course think Rice is fully capable of being vice president, but her race and gender would play the largest role in her getting on McCain's ticket, in my opinion. And if nothing else it would just make for a more dynamic ticket than almost anyone else he could choose.
As far as her not wanting to run a national campaign just yet? Yeah, I kind of agree with that too. It's been brought up that she may want to run for Governor of California. I guess I could see that...
However, if the situation is right on the ground (read: if Hillary blows up the party and black people are mad at the Dems), and if McCain asks her, I'd be a little surprised if she said no.
scrawled by Isaac Lawrence | April 8, 2008 10:25 AM
She has the gap-toothed look to be the governor of California, at least. ;)
scrawled by Dave Van Domelen | April 8, 2008 12:14 PM
And even if Obama is the nominee, people may see voting for her as a way to avoid choosing between race and gender, as well as neutralizing Obama's "making history" advantage to a degree; after all, there are those who aren't even betting on McCain to last out a full-term.
scrawled by Matt Adler | April 8, 2008 3:17 PM
Well, that pic just clinches it. I chuckle and am disgusted at condi2.jpg. A very good photoshop'd. It sums up your cry for help and the polytyk of the land. Well done.
scrawled by circ | April 8, 2008 5:08 PM
Given that McCain has to separate himself from one of the most unpopular presidents in history, I don't see what she brings the table. She's clearly incompetent in her job, as the world is a far more dangerous place since before she was in office. And I can't name a single black person who would vote Republican for her sake that wasn't going to do so anyway.
She scares soccer moms. In her recent attempt to discuss race in the wake of Obama's speech, she called blackness a "defect". So if she's not going to appeal to black people or women, and Reagan Democrats hate the Bush adminstration, what's the point?
scrawled by Weezy | April 8, 2008 7:24 PM
Matt:
"And even if Obama is the nominee, people may see voting for her as a way to avoid choosing between race and gender, as well as neutralizing Obama's "making history" advantage to a degree; after all, there are those who aren't even betting on McCain to last out a full-term."
Yeah, I suppose. And I'd be a little surprised myself if McCain runs for a second term.
If Obama is the nominee though I think it would be a waste of time for McCain to pick Rice as a running mate -- because I doubt very many black voters would vote for Rice as veep over Obama as president. No, McCain would be better served going with a governor or someone to shore up his shortcomings on the economy if Obama is the nominee.
Weezy:
"And I can't name a single black person who would vote Republican for her sake that wasn't going to do so anyway."
Yeah, the only real advantage I see to having her on McCain's ticket is to have someone for angry black voters to vote for to spite Hillary in the event that she tries to destroy Obama to get the nomination.
That kind of talk of course is "so two weeks ago" and highly unlikely to come about. But come time for Denver and into the fall if we find ourselves in that situation... you never know. I doubt it would work, but you never know. People vote against their own interests and for weird reasons all the time.
I include myself in that -- if it had turned out to be Hillary against Giuliani this fall I was going to vote for Giuliani. Giuliani is crazy as a loon, but there something about him that I like.
I'm only voting for Obama because he's a cool cat to me. No other real reason. People voted for Bush because they thought he'd be great to have a beer with, and I'm voting for Obama because I feel he's like Bobby Kennedy or whatever to me and my generation.
scrawled by Isaac Lawrence | April 9, 2008 9:46 AM
I think the attraction of Rice would not be for black voters-- it'd be for white voters. They can vote against Obama and put their own minds at ease that "it's not about race".
scrawled by Matt Adler | April 10, 2008 6:04 AM
Okay, I can see that.
In other words, and a cynical way of looking at it: "if you don't want to vote for their black candidate, well, we have one too, so come and vote for ours."
And I guess that begs the question: if Obama had been bounced out of the race, say, back on Super Tuesday, would Condoleezza Rice's name even come up?
Anyway, again, and cynicism aside, I can see what you're saying.
And I guess I will add: if it's Hillary and (fill in the blank; and other than Obama) against McCain and Rice, I'm voting for McCain and Rice. And that would just be an early vote for Rice for 2012, because I have a zero-level of enthusiasm for McCain.
(Giuliani would have been entertaining, but McCain just bores me to tears. I can't even work up enough energy to be against him, he's just there... )
scrawled by Isaac Lawrence | April 10, 2008 7:29 AM
Actually, for all the talk of Condi Rice taking the number two spot on the Republican ticket, there is a much better name out there.
Every time I throw out the name as a VP for McCain, even the Democrats in earshot stop, pause and contemplate whether or not they would swing over and vote GOP.
Who?
Colin Powell.
Powell has distanced himself from the administration of GW Bush and his conflict with Rumsfeld and Cheney is well-documented, especially when speaking to the subject of Iraq. His appearance before the UN prior to the invasion is generally looked upon as a man who had been given the choice of following the CIC although his distaste for those policies was readily apparent. So much so, he chose not to be a part of the second term of Bush’s presidency.
I don’t see a Obama/Clinton ticket.
What I don’t understand is this, if it had been anyone other than Hillary in the race, wouldn’t they have already acknowledged Obama’s lead and thrown support behind him in an attempt to win the general election?
scrawled by mister_pj | April 10, 2008 10:46 AM
mister_pj:
"What I don’t understand is this, if it had been anyone other than Hillary in the race, wouldn’t they have already acknowledged Obama’s lead and thrown support behind him in an attempt to win the general election?"
In a word: Yes.
And that's one thing I found a little comical about the Clinton campaign's reaction the other week about calls for her to get out of the race. Because if Obama was in second place, and in her position with a steep uphill climb to the nomination, I don't think he would have just been *asked* to step aside, I think he would have been *driven* out -- with Hillary at the wheel and Bill riding shotgun.
One other thought on Rice and Republicans: I've noticed quite a few of the Republicans, when asked on the cable news channels about her, are a little mealy-mouthed. Sure, they say how wonderful they think she is and this and that, but there's always a "but." Almost to a one they add that they doubt she'll run, or accept the veep spot. "She's great, but I doubt she wants to be vice president."
Like anything there's a number of ways of interpreting that: one way is that they're being totally sincere. Another way, and one that's more fun and more cynical is, in the event John McCain wins, they may not be that crazy about having to support her in 2012 or 2016.
Priest's "evil business," albeit in a slightly different connotation.
One thing on Colin Powell: he just turned 71 last week, he's a year younger than McCain.
Otherwise, Powell is the man.
scrawled by Isaac Lawrence | April 10, 2008 12:47 PM
If you'd like a bit more of an outside POV:
Rice would be there to shore up the Conservatives. Dr. Rice is well-loved on the further right. And a bit of a Sex Symbol. I don't think you can fault her for her performance as sec state, as the world is working so hard at screwing itself up.
I forget - is Powell still an uncle tom, or is he cool again?
scrawled by greg zywicki | April 11, 2008 9:21 AM